AccuWeather predicts “Explosive” Atlantic hurricane season in 2024

Orlando, FL — Batten down the hatches!

Meteorologists at AccuWeather predict an “explosive” Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.

AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster, Alex DaSilva said, “The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts.”

DaSilva said, last year the Atlantic recorded the warmest sea-surface temperatures to date, “Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region.”

Another major factor to AccuWeather’s “explosive” prediction, is the transition this summer from El Nino to La Nina.

According to AccuWeather, this is when water near the equator in the Eastern Pacific Ocean quickly flips from El Niño, when temperatures in this area are higher than normal, to La Niña, when temperatures in this area are lower than normal.

“It can be helpful to visualize a stack of pancakes,” DaSilva said, “When there is a high amount of wind shear, the top of a tropical system can be pushed and tilted away from its base, causing it to become lopsided. If a mature hurricane is in place, it may weaken but will not necessarily dissipate. A tall, neat stack is what a tropical system wants to be, but wind shear can cause some pancakes to be displaced and the stack could fall over.”

Simplified, the faster the transition to La Niña, the more active the hurricane season.

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DaSilva predicts a “supercharged” season with 20 to 25 named storms, including 8 to 12 hurricanes, with four of them being major. Four to six are predicted to impact the U.S.

“There is a 10-15% chance of 30 or more named storms this year,” DaSilva said.

If we reach those numbers in 2024, we would have to use names on a supplemental list, which was established after 31 tropical cyclones in 2020, the most active Atlantic Season on record.

Last year, the Atlantic Hurricane season saw 19 storms with only four U.S. impacts. The strongest in 2023 was Category 3 Hurricane Idalia, which struck Florida’s big bend.

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The Atlantic Hurricane season begins on June 1st.

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